Red One’s Box Office Will Be Good For Movie Theaters, But Disastrous For Amazon

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson at one point earned the unofficial designation of “franchise Viagra.” This is because every franchise he joined seemed to benefit greatly from his presence. “Fast Five” being a big turning point for the “Fast & Furious” franchise is the classic example. But for the past couple of years, the wrestler-turned-actor has struggled a bit to deliver the goods like he used to at the box office. So, can his new, original holiday movie “Red One” get things back on track? Or is this another disaster in the making? Is it possible that the answer is both?

Currently, the big-budget action/holiday flick is on track to take in between $25 and $30 million domestically on opening weekend, per early tracking (via Deadline). That’s on the optimistic side of things. The folks at Box Office Theory currently have the film taking in as little as $18 million in its debut, with $27 million marked as the ceiling. Even on the low end, it would be just enough of a boost to help get theaters through a slow weekend until “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” usher in a gold rush over Thanksgiving.

The film reunites Johnson with director Jake Kasdan, who directed both “Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle” and “Jumanji: The Next Level,” both of which were massive hits by the way. As for “Red One,” Amazon Studios put up the massive $250 million budget, which resulted from alleged issues during the film’s production. In any event, that makes it expensive enough that it will have an almost impossible time profiting in theaters. But because we’re talking about Amazon and a movie that was originally supposed to go directly to streaming on Prime Video, the math gets fuzzy.

Much in the same way that it’s hard to determine what success meant for Apple with “Napoleon” or “Killers of the Flower Moon,” it’s tough to know what Amazon wants to see from “Red One.” Companies like Amazon are ultimately using theaters to help bring more attention to the film on streaming. At the same time, we’re still talking about a $250 million investment before marketing.

“Red One” centers on a group of bad guys who breach Santa’s legendary North Pole outpost and kidnap him. In response, Callum Drift (Johnson), the commander of E.L.F. and head of security for Santa (J.K. Simmons), and world famous tracker Jack O’Malley (Chris Evans) head off on a globe-trotting search to rescue Jolly Old Saint Nick and bring him home in time for Christmas Eve. The film also stars Lucy Liu (“Charlie’s Angels”), Kiernan Shipka (“Longlegs”), Bonnie Hunt (“Jumanji”), Nick Kroll (“Big Mouth”), and Kristofer Hivju (“Game of Thrones”).

For Johnson, his last out-and-out hit came in 2019 with “Jumanji: The Next Level” ($795 million worldwide). His films since then, including “Jungle Cruise,” “DC League of Super-Pets,” and most notably “Black Adam,” all failed to live up to expectations. In particular, “Black Adam” didn’t even cross the $400 million mark worldwide after being hyped up as a fresh start of sorts for the DC Universe. He could certainly use a hit to help his reputation.

Unfortunately, given the reported budget for “Red One,” its current projections aren’t going to be enough to make it a hit using any sort of traditional box office math. That said, if the film resonates with family audiences and can hang around through the holiday season to put up respectable numbers before arriving on Prime Video, it could find itself in that “good enough for a streaming movie” range, not unlike Ben Affleck’s “Air.”

At the very least, Johnson will help give theaters a little boost before the fruitful Thanksgiving holiday rolls around. Not only do we have “Wicked” and “Gladiator II,” but also “Moana 2,” which prominently features Johnson as well, hitting theaters the day before Thanksgiving and looking to do big business. So, it seems The Rock’s much-needed hit is coming, one way or another.

“Red One” opens in theaters on November 15, 2024.