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He was dismissive of his opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. “Bye, bye to Mr. Kemal,” he mentioned. He denigrated LGBTQ individuals as a menace to “household.” And he dominated out any launch for an imprisoned Kurdish political chief, calling him a “terrorist.”
Comparable remarks had been a part of his marketing campaign stump speech over the previous few weeks as Erdogan tried to distract from Turkey’s financial disaster, marked by hovering inflation. His focus — on threats to the nation and to the material of conservative life — helped rally a coalition of supporters that included pious Muslims and hard-right nationalists and gave Erdogan 52 % of the vote within the runoff held Sunday.
Because the nation moved on from the election, Erdogan wouldn’t simply abandon the bitter rhetoric, analysts mentioned, setting Turkey on a divisive and turbulent course for the foreseeable future, at the same time as Erdogan juggled a have to stabilize the financial system in addition to Turkey’s usually stormy relations with allies within the West.
In reality, “I believe he’s going to harden” his rhetoric, mentioned Berk Esen, a professor of political science at Istanbul’s Sabanci College. “We’re going to see him undertake a really polarizing discourse utilizing ethno-religious themes” to keep up his “successful coalition” of voters.
![](https://i0.wp.com/gfx-data.news-engineering.aws.wapo.pub/ai2html/turkeyrunoff/JTC3LZULNRGRVPPHW5YJRZYIQU/turkey-election-xxsmall.jpg?w=1170&ssl=1)
Turkish presidential runoff election
Notice: 99.43% poll packing containers opened. Unofficial election outcomes.
Supply: Anadolu Company, worldpop.org
![](https://i0.wp.com/gfx-data.news-engineering.aws.wapo.pub/ai2html/turkeyrunoff/JTC3LZULNRGRVPPHW5YJRZYIQU/turkey-election-medium.jpg?w=1170&ssl=1)
Turkish presidential runoff election
Notice: 99.43% poll packing containers opened. Unofficial election outcomes.
Supply: Anadolu Company, worldpop.org
Erdogan’s victory was a blow to opposition supporters who had rallied round Kilicdaroglu’s early marketing campaign pledges, which included a restoration of the nation’s democracy, safety for civil liberties and even the discharge of among the nation’s most high-profile political prisoners, amongst them Selahattin Demirtas, the imprisoned Kurdish chief.
As Erdogan railed in opposition to LGBTQ individuals throughout the marketing campaign, Kilicdaroglu recommended he would permit satisfaction parades, banned beneath the present authorities. For a time, Kilicdaroglu promised a extra civil public discourse and, most necessary, change, after twenty years with Erdogan as Turkey’s chief.
The federal government’s mismanagement of the financial system and its faltering response to lethal earthquakes in February promised to broaden the opposition’s attraction. However Erdogan, a gifted orator, raised the specter of darkish threats to the nation emanating from the opposition, casting himself because the bulwark in opposition to chaos.
Final week in central Turkey, for instance, Bunyamin Eken, 39, who supported Erdogan, criticized Kilicdaroglu for saying he would launch Demirtas in addition to a once-obscure civil-society activist named Osman Kavala, held on costs that human rights teams say are baseless. Eken elevated such worries above his personal financial issues, after Erdogan solid Kavala because the chief of a world plot in opposition to Turkey.
Kilicdaroglu, who trailed Erdogan within the election’s first spherical, was compelled to undertake extra aggressively nationalist themes earlier than Sunday’s vote, together with anti-immigrant rhetoric concentrating on tens of millions of refugees from Syria and elsewhere who’ve settled in Turkey.
Regardless of the president’s successful technique, “I don’t assume issues are going to be straightforward for Erdogan,” Esen mentioned. “He doesn’t have the means to rebuild the earthquake zone. He doesn’t have the means to resolve the migration disaster. In some unspecified time in the future the Turkish financial system goes to crash.”
And though Erdogan’s alliance had received a majority of seats in parliament, his personal get together was depending on extra excessive coalition companions — who oppose girls’s rights or better recognition of Turkey’s Kurdish minority and will demand insurance policies that replicate their issues, Esen mentioned.
“Erdogan put collectively a successful coalition based mostly on fault traces: Turkish versus Kurdish nationalism, secular-urban versus the Sunni majority. This can be a successful method,” he mentioned.
“This isn’t a greater method for Turkey,” he added.
Erdogan will stay in “marketing campaign mode” no less than till subsequent March, when native elections are set to be held, mentioned Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, the Ankara director of the German Marshall Fund. On the identical time, he “might want to juggle an financial disaster of his personal making, and really, he’s working out of ammunition,” he mentioned, noting that Turkey’s international reserves had not too long ago fallen under zero for the primary time since 2002.
Erdogan’s have to stabilize the financial system is prone to end in a international coverage much less turbulent than within the latest previous, as Turkey relied on short-term money flows from international locations reminiscent of Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. “He will probably be very cautious to not irritate them,” Unluhisarcikli mentioned. Turkey additionally must “appease worldwide monetary markets,” which might require that Erdogan stabilize relations with Europe and the USA.
President Biden’s early, congratulatory tweet after Erdogan’s victory Sunday — and a cellphone name between the 2 leaders Monday — may present that each international locations are excited about de-escalating years of tense relations over Syria and Turkey’s shut relations with Russia, Unluhisarcikli mentioned.
At house, although, “the extent of stress we witnessed over the last couple of months isn’t sustainable,” he mentioned. “I don’t anticipate stress to proceed at this stage, however I don’t anticipate consensual politics both. I anticipate President Erdogan to lower tensions a little bit bit, solely to re-increase them” earlier than the following election.
For younger voters like Ilgin Yilmaz, who voted Sunday for Kilicdaroglu, clinging to the opportunity of Erdogan’s defeat even because it appeared unlikely, one other season of divisive politics appeared an excessive amount of to bear.
“I used to be born within the 2000s and I wakened with this authorities, and now I’m 23 years outdated and nonetheless they’re right here,” she mentioned. As a lady, she feared the affect of political events aligned with Erdogan that favor strictly curbing girls’s rights. As a medical scholar, she was angered by the president’s dismissive remarks towards medical doctors who wished to go away Turkey over poor working situations.
“We actually hate this authorities,” she mentioned.
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